With Juventus cruising to a 33rd league title – Max Allegri’s side are 1/25 to claim a sixth successive championship – the focus this weekend lies a little lower down the standings, where one of the most celebrated local dust ups kicks off a brilliant day of Italian football, with all ten fixtures scheduled for a Saturday feast of Serie A action.
Milan Ready for Rare ‘Away’ Victory | 15 April 11:30
It’s an early start at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, where Inter are the nominated home side in the second derby of the season against Milan. Stefano Pioli’s team have suffered a slump in form recently, and are without a win in three matches, but are still rated as evens favourites to pick up a victory that would see them leapfrog their city rivals in the league table. Milan trade at 51/20 for just a second ‘away’ win in over a decade, with the draw 51/20.
Neither side are given too much of a chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season, with both priced at 75/1 for a top three finish, while the pair earn 500/1 quotes in the Serie A ‘winner without Juventus’ market.
It basically means that this fixture is all about local bragging rights – and most of those that populate both the Curva Nord and Curva Sud wouldn’t have it any other way.
On the pitch, the downturn in form for the Nerazzurri couldn’t have come at a worse time for Pioli, whose long-term future is in serious doubt. His team’s 2-1 loss to relegation threatened Crotone last weekend, and it has heaped the pressure on the former Lazio coach, whose time at the capital club ended following a derby defeat to Roma just over a year ago. Without a clean sheet in six games, Inter have lost shape and cohesion at the back, and look as listless as they did under Frank de Boer earlier this campaign.
The Rossoneri, despite some mystery surrounding their new owners, are on the up, with the layers making them 3/5 to finish above Inter (6/5) in the table. Vincenzo Montella’s team have lost only to Juventus in Turin since early February.
A narrow Milan success is predicted – cover 1-0 (13/1) and 2-1 (11/1) as correct scores – with Carlos Bacca – five goals in his last five league games – the best option for anytime (39/20) and first goalscorer (6/1) bets.
Golazos Almost Guaranteed In Super Sabato | 15 April 14:00
Crotone have given themselves a small chance of staying in Serie A by recording back to back victories in the top flight for the first time in their history. Victories over Chievo and, last week, Inter, have seen Davide Nicola’s team drift to an admittedly still short 1/10 for the drop from an almost-rated-as-a-certainty 1/100. Could they pull off the great escape?
Well, with fixtures against Lazio and Juventus still to come it’s unlikely, and their recent upswing in form could be halted at Torino. Il Toro can boast the joint top Serie A goal scorer this season in their ranks in the form of Andrea Belotti, who is 6/4 (along with Roma’s Edin Dzeko) to win the Capocannoniere and, at 8/15, Sinisa Mihajlovic’s men should form the cornerstone of punters accumulators this weekend. They could even cover the handicap mark of -1.5 goal at 29/20 – something they’ve done in their last two home games against teams in the bottom six.
Roma are Juventus’ closest challengers for title glory, but the current six-point deficit looks a tough one to overhaul – although Grosvenor Sport dangle a tempting 12/1 about a first Scudetto for the Giallorossi since 2001. Their home game this weekend against Atalanta is no gimme, despite trading short at 12/25. The visitors are 53/10 with the draw on offer at 100/30.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s team are unbeaten in four against Roma and are free scoring with nine goals in their last three fixtures. No side has netted as many goals as Luciano Spalletti’s team on their own patch, though, and this could easily turn into a goal-fest. So, back over 2.5 and 3.5 goals, at 13/25 and 33/25 respectively, plus both teams to score ‘yes’ at 3/5 – the latter looks nailed on given that in seven of last eight meetings both sides have found the net.
We head to the Stadio San Paolo for the finale on Saturday, with Napoli hosting Udinese in the evening kick off. At 1/4 you won’t get rich backing Maurizio Sarri’s team on the match market (although if you fancy the visitors they are on offer at a joint-biggest-on-the coupon 19/2), but there is a way of squeezing some value out of the fixture. Napoli have scored three or more goals in six of their last nine matches against sides in the bottom half of Serie A, and are quoted at 94/100 to net over 2.5 goals against Luigi Delneri’s men.