As pressure mounts on Man Utd manager Jose Mourinho, Grosvenorsport.com study shows October sackings help clubs gain five positions by the end of Premier League season
October is statistically the best month for Premier League clubs to sack their managers, according to research from Grosvenorsport.com, which shows teams climb five positions higher in the league come the end of the season by biting the bullet this month.
Pressure is mounting on Man Utd manager Jose Mourinho, with the Portuguese boss only securing 10 points from his opening seven matches, leaving the Red Devils languishing in 10th place in England’s top flight.
And as rumours continue to circulate that the former Chelsea and Porto manager could be first to be shown the door this season, the study reveals that teams who wave goodbye to their managers in October gain 0.6 more points per game than under their previous boss.
December sees more bosses being shown the door than any other month, with 18 of the 70 sackings over the past 10 Premier League seasons coming in the festive period. However, teams make an average improvement of just 0.27 points per game after December sackings, which averages as only two league positions by the end of the season.
Don’t leave it too late
Teams would be wise to do their sackings as early as possible – clubs that sack their managers in March remain in the same position on average, though pick up fewer points per game, while those who sack bosses in April actually end up falling a position in the table.
There have only been two occasions in the last ten years where Premier League clubs have won silverware in the wake of managerial departures. Juande Ramos had League Cup success in 2008 with Tottenham Hotspur following Martin Jol’s sacking, while Roberto Di Matteo won the FA Cup and Champions League with Chelsea in 2012 after replacing Andre Villas-Boas.
Black Cats lead the sack race
Of the Premier League clubs to have fired managers in the last decade, Sunderland lead the way with six managerial exits, with Roy Keane, Steve Bruce, Martin O’Neill, Paolo Di Canio, Gus Poyet and Dick Advocaat all getting the boot while in the top flight. Chelsea, Newcastle, West Brom and Swansea have all sacked five managers since the 2007/2008 season – including current Man United manager Jose Mourinho, who could be first to face the chop this season.
Crystal Palace are arguably the team to have benefitted most from one individual manager’s contract being terminated. After the Eagles replaced Frank de Boer with Roy Hodgson last season, they went on to gain 44 points under the former England boss and comfortably avoid relegation by finishing securing an 11th placed spot in the league – in contrast to De Boer’s run of no wins and no goals from four matches in charge at Selhurst Park.
Steve Munns, Head of Sport at Grosvenorsport.com, said: “It’s quite telling that sacking a manager on average actually improves a team’s position, and the stats indicate that the ideal month to try and turn your season around with a new boss is October, which could leave a few managers sweating over their positions for the next few weeks.
“Chief amongst those is Jose Mourinho, whose relationship with the Man United board and dressing room appears to be at breaking point. With our research showing October is the best month to sack a manager, United fans might be hoping Mourinho gets the boot soon, before it becomes too late to save their season.”