Hamilton to Return to Form at Silverstone

Last weekend, I told you to expect points wins for Timothy Bradley and Callum Smith in the boxing, and that’s exactly what happened – although I was totally wrong with a price-oriented bet on Brian Vera. This weekend, with no boxing of any note until next weekend, while considering that Wimbledon is already underway, I’ve chosen a couple of bets in the British Formula One Grand Prix, which takes place on Sunday at 13:00 on BBC1 and Sky Sports F1.

The 2015 F1 Season So Far

Early test results illustrated that while Mercedes were still in a league of their own pace wise, the Ferrari engine was now second-best and a lot more competitive than it was in 2014. These findings proved to be correct as Mercedes have since won seven of the eight Grand Prix held in 2015, with Ferrari winning the other. Indeed, apart from the last two races, the podium has consistently seen two Mercedes’ and a Ferrari on it.

Further down the grid, three-time race winners in 2014 through Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull have yet to earn a podium finish in 2015 and are way off the pace with an uncompetitive car that’s hampered by a Renault engine deemed to be light years behind its Mercedes counterpart.

Amazingly, even further down the grid, and usually second-bottom, are a McLaren team that’s partnership with Honda has so far provided a car that’s more likely not to finish a race than score a point or compete at the top end of the grid.

British F1 Grand Prix Betting

Championship leader Lewis Hamilton is priced around 4/7 to win the race, while his Mercedes teammate, Nico Rosberg, is offered around 15/8. Third in the betting, you can get Ferrari’s four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel at 12/1 or his colleague, Kimi Raikkonen, at 25/1.

In terms of podium betting, both Mercedes drivers are virtually guaranteed to finish in the top three unless their cars break down, and their respective 1/12 and 1/10 prices reflect that. Next up, one-time 2015 race winner Sebastian Vettel is priced around 2/5, with erratic teammate Kimi Raikkonen on offer at 11/4. Fifth and six in the podium betting are the Williams tandem of Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa, with the former listed as a 9/2 shot and the latter a 5/1 wager.

For anyone interested in betting on a points finish, there’s no value in chancing any of the top drivers and your attention seems best served in choosing between Red Bull’s Daniil Kvyat (17/20), Force India’s Sergio Perez (evens), Toro Rosso’s Max Verstappen (6/5) and Carlos Sainz Jr (7/4) or Sauber’s Felipe Nasr (3/1).

The 2015 British F1 Grand Prix Betting Verdict

Since he drives the fastest car on the track, is arguably the fastest driver and has won 50% of the races held in 2015, I’m happy to back Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in any race if he’s priced around even money. Otherwise, I’ll bet on Rosberg if he’s offered at 3/1 or bigger as the German has the same car as Hamilton, has won three races this season and at 1/3 odds I’ll get my money back if the German finishes second – which is the minimum expectancy for the Mercedes driver.

This time, sadly, Hamilton is 4/7 to win and Rosberg just 15/8, so unless I bet after qualification in a scenario where Lewis takes pole, his price shortens and Nico’s goes out, my normal pre-practice betting options are off the agenda.

Basically, bookmakers know that 2014 British GP winner Hamilton is due a win after Rosberg’s won three of the last four races, and that he’ll be determined to emerge victorious in a race he’s won before in front of a home crowd, but given the German’s success can’t price Nico too big.

All in all, though, I agree that Hamilton will win the 2015 British GP and since he’s taken pole position in seven of the eight races held in 2015, think that it’s a fair assumption to make that he’ll make it eight in nine. As such, if we bet on the special pole position/race winner market we can get 5/6 about Hamilton.

Finally, and well worth a punt at the price, I’ve taken a bet in the podium market. Of course, the Mercedes drivers are 90% likely to finish first and second, which leaves us with third. Ferrari’s Vettel is the main contender for this spot as he’s finished in the top three several times this season and even won a race, but then he’s only priced at 2/5 and his teammate, Raikkonen, pretty much always qualifies badly and crashed in his last race, so we can rule the Finn out as too chancy.

As stated earlier in this article, the prices then drop-off to 9/2 about Williams’ Bottas and 5/1 for Massa. Now, it’s fair to say that a Williams car that was second-best in 2014 is now behind Ferrari and third at best in 2015, but then the English team have improved in recent races and look more of a threat.

Indeed, Bottas claimed his first podium finish of 2015 in the Canadian Grand Prix and Massa snared third ahead of his teammate and Ferrari’s Vettel in the Austrian GP a couple of weeks ago, so with Silverstone being a circuit that suits the Williams car fairly well, another podium finish for one of the in-form tandem offers great value at the prices.

Personally, while I’m a big fan of Felipe Massa and am pleased to see him still performing at a relatively high level in this stage of his career, I think that the younger and faster Bottas is a better driver and will chance my money on the Finn – as he did in 2014 – making the podium at Silverstone on Sunday.

Recommendation: Hamilton to take pole and the race win at 5/6
Worth a punt: Bottas podium finish at 9/2
Of course, whether you do or don’t opt for a wager, have a great weekend and feel free to contact me on Twitter via @JCLaLiga if you have any questions or feedback.









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