At the start of the week, I thought the Turners was the weakest of the Novices’ Chases, but now that Grey Dawning has switched to this race from the Brown Advisory, it looks that bit stronger.
Facile Vega has a very good record around Cheltenham, winning the Bumper and then finishing second in the Supreme last year. I think he’ll take all the beating here and stepping up to 2m4f will suit him. He’s in really good order and he’s been working well, and I think if anything does beat him then that’ll be the winner.
All of the rain probably won’t have helped Icare Allen, but the Pertemps is an open race, nonetheless. I could see him running a good race and sneaking into the places rather than definitely going and winning. The rain has diminished his chances a little but, if it stays relatively dry, then that will help. He’s still in with a chance, but drier ground would have suited him better.
The Ryanair looks like a very competitive race this year and I think the ground is going to play a huge part. Banbridge pulled out last year on slow ground, so it’ll be interesting to see what they do. I think Envoi Allen is the one to beat having won the race last year and he’s run well so far this term.
We like Capodanno, and he won the last day. He would probably prefer a slightly longer trip, but if they go a good gallop on the slower ground then I think he can stay on when a few begin to tail off.
Looking at our three runners in the Stayers’ Hurdle, I think Janidil probably has it all to do. We’ve put the cheekpieces on him to see if that will concentrate him a bit more – hopefully, that will help. Asterion Forlonge might just be found wanting a bit. He’s a 10-year-old now so he’s probably not improving.
Sir Gerhard is a very good horse. He won the Bumper and the Ballymore a couple of years ago, but he’s had a bit of an interrupted campaign the last couple of years, having gone chasing and that not working out. He won well back over hurdles on his last run at Punchestown, but I do have a slight concern about the trip here because he’s got a lot of speed – I think he can still run a good race, though.
I think our two horses in this race, James Du Berlais and Glengouly, are more chances than strong fancies at the moment. They’ve been running consistently well but they’ve paid the price for that with James Du Berlais carrying 12 stone and Glengouly carrying 11st 8lbs.
They are both capable of running very well but I’d have to think that there are one or two others in the race who will be better handicapped than ours.
I expect there to be a real battle here between Jade De Grugy and Brighterdaysahead. We’re very happy with Jade De Grugy – we love her. She’s been very impressive on her two runs so far and the drop back to two miles won’t be an issue for her.
The Gordon Elliott camp are screaming from the rooftops about Brighterdaysahead so she’ll be a difficult nut to crack, but we love our horse and we’re very happy with her.
We’ve only got the one runner here with Chavez, who ran very well before falling at the last on his previous run at Leopardstown. He set sail for home early and maybe could’ve finished off better with a bit more of a conservative run.
I do see him running a good race, but I really like the favourite, Inothewayurthinkin, for Gavin Cromwell. He’s been lined up for this race all season and he’ll be a tough contender, but I think Chavez can run a good race at a big price.
Best of luck,
David